Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
